Spending money you don’t have?

It’s easy, Germany. You can do it too.

The best part is that there are never any consequences… Right? Even when spending the money you don’t have is never actually spent.

Germany’s borrowing spree plans face a reality check – Investors would be wrong to overstate concerns about a debt surge by the country.

Germany has had an abrupt awakening on the need to increase defence spending. The country enjoyed an oversized peace dividend for years: before the Berlin Wall fell, west Germany spent almost 3 per cent of GDP on defence. In the three decades after 1993 that ratio dropped to around 1.2 per cent annually. Military capabilities fell commensurately.

Since Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the election of a US president given to venting misgivings about European allies, a hectic scramble has ensued to make up for lost time. As chancellor, Olaf Scholz declared a “Zeitenwende” (or historical turning point) and parliament approved a €100bn debt-financed special fund for defence spending…

Nevertheless, markets would be wrong to overstate the German debt surge. The government’s ambition will probably be thwarted when the plans get in contact with reality. Appropriating borrowing permission is much easier than actually spending it. Scholz’s military special fund is a case in point. Up to April, halfway through its life, only around a quarter of the money has been disbursed.

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