De-risk is de-problem

No de-risk, no fun?

Germany’s China problem – and why de-risking hasn’t worked.

Dan Wang of Eurasia Group discusses the paradox of Europe’s current trade strategy, noting that Germany’s efforts to “de-risk” over the past years have actually deepened its reliance on China’s supply chain.

Hee Spie Yoo arrested in Germany

Shi Spie Yoo too.

German authorities arrest 2 on China espionage allegations – Two Munich residents have been arrested on suspicion of working for a Chinese intelligence service, seeking to obtain and pass on high-tech information with “military applications.”

“In order to obtain access to scientific information about high-tech technologies with military applications, they built up contacts with numerous scientists at German universities and research institutes. Some scientists were lured to China on the premise of delivering lectures to the civilian audiences for remuneration,” prosecutors alleged. “In reality, these presentations then took place in front of associates of state-run weapons companies.”

Shock treatment isn’t working for Germany

A more radical resuscitation remedy may be needed.

Germany urged to stop admiring Beijing and wake up to ‘China Shock 2.0’ – ‘China has already eaten much of German industry’s lunch and is preparing to start on dinner,’ thinktank says.

Germany must stop admiring China’s success in the EU or it will sleepwalk into the kind of deindustrialisation the US experienced 25 years ago, a leading Brussels thinktank has said.

Deeper ties to China?

Smart move, Germany (Schleswig-Holstein).

Reminds me of those deeper ties to Russia right before the war in Ukraine broke out.

German state eyes deeper China cooperation in energy, innovation – Significant potential exists to deepen cooperation between the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein and east China’s Zhejiang Province, particularly in energy transition, hydrogen and advanced manufacturing, according to Daniel Guenther, minister president of Schleswig-Holstein.

His remarks come as the two regions mark 40 years of partnership, with both sides seeking to expand ties despite an increasingly complex geopolitical and trade environment.

Germany warning China again

China still not giving a lā shǐ.

Germany’s Leader Delivers a Blunt Warning to China on Trade – Chancellor Friedrich Merz laid out his complaints in a frank message to his hosts on a trip to Beijing that China had designed to showcase their relationship.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany arrived in China on Wednesday with an outstretched hand and a list of complaints for his hosts, asking for closer diplomatic ties but also relief from economic policies that he said were impeding “fair competition.”

Rebound?

More like a dead cat bounce.

German Economy Grows by 0.3% in Q4, Stats Office Says – The German ​economy ‌grew ‌by ⁠0.3% in ⁠the fourth quarter ​of ​2025 compared ⁠with ⁠the ⁠previous quarter, the ​statistics ​office ⁠said ⁠on Wednesday, confirming its ⁠preliminary reading.

Meanwhile… German auto exports to China plunged by a third in 2025, economic institute says.

Germany + China = Shock

For Germany.

“The China shock is here,” the German Economic Institute declared last year. Indeed, 2025 will go down as the year in which it could no longer be denied. Germany’s trade deficit with China reached a record level of €87 billion—an increase of €20 billion compared to the previous year. And German exports to China continue to be in free fall. The United States, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Italy have by now become more important export markets for Germany than China.

Maybe not the best top trading partner to have.

A Tale of Two Headlines

“German business lobby warns of unfair trade practices by China” vs. “China overtakes US to become Germany’s top trading partner.”

China has overtaken the US as Germany’s most important trading partner, according to figures released by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Friday.

The sum of exports and imports between the two countries last year totaled €251.8 billion ($296.6 billion), a 2.1% increase, according to Destatis.

China was Germany’s most important trading partner from 2016 all the way through to 2023. In 2024, the US briefly held the title.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also set to visit China next week, where he is set to discuss trade and other topics.

Shock treatment about to begin in Germany

China shock treatment.

If the Chinese can’t displace the American workforce anymore, then they’ll displace another one (or two, or three…).

The China shock hits Germany – Trade with China displaced large parts of the American workforce in the 2000s, but Germany did not experience a similar shock at the time…