Gott Sei Dank

Thank God. The Germans are relieved. For a while there things were starting to look way too positive.

Post-Brexit-wise.

Positive trend in German exports to Britain no cause for optimism – DIHK.

German exports to Britain this year could grow for the first time since 2015, statstics office data showed, but the DIHK business association said the numbers did not mark a turn for the better, especially in light of Britain’s current turbulence.

Germans Thinking About Reducing Their Dependency On China

Why on earth for? It worked great with Russia.

German economy ministry reviews measures to curb China business – Germany’s economy ministry is considering a raft of measures to make business with China less attractive as it seeks to reduce its dependency on Asia’s economic superpower, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The measures could include reducing or even scrapping investment and export guarantees for China and no longer promoting trade fairs and manager training there, those people said. Loans from state lender KfW could be re-directed to projects in other Asian countries, such as Indonesia, in line with attempts to diversify trade and increase business with democracies.

German Of The Day: Handelsbilanzdefizit

That means trade deficit.

Germany warns of ‘historic challenge’ as trade slides into deficit – Soaring energy prices and trading disruption push balance €1bn into the red for May.

Imports increased 2.7 per cent to €126.7bn from April to May while month-on-month exports fell 0.5 per cent to €125.8bn, according to data released on Monday by the federal statistical agency.

“In the past. Germany could always rely on strong exports to revive the economy and today’s numbers show the trade balance will not return as a positive element for growth for at least the next couple of years,”

German Of The Day: Tank-Rabatt

That means tank discount.

No. Not those kind of tanks. Like tanks of gas. Germans will soon only have to pay an arm for their gasoline. They can keep their legs. For now.

German finance minister plans gasoline discount – German Finance Minister Christian Lindner plans to introduce a discount on gasoline to help motorists cope with doaring prices, Bild daily reported on Sunday.

50% Is Pretty Dependent

I’d say. But maybe that’s just me.

Hey, the Germans couldn’t have done it without Angela Merkel.

Factbox: How dependent is Germany on Russian gas?

Russia has warned it may shut off its main Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany after Berlin halted approval of a second line across the Baltic Sea in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Well, Then He Shouldn’t Announce Tariffs, Right?

German auto sector could drop as much as 12% if Trump announces tariffs, analyst says.

Tariffs

Gee, I wonder if there is anything the Germans/Europeans could do to prevent that from happening? I dunno. How about like maybe lowering their tariffs? Just thinking out loud here, people.

Germany’s automotive sector could fall as much as 12% over “three bad trading days,” if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European car manufacturers, one analyst told CNBC.

Trump has until Friday midnight (Washington time) to decide whether to impose duties on car imports. This would likely hurt Germany, the EU’s traditional growth engine, given that it is one of the largest direct car exporters to the U.S.

“If indeed we get U.S. car tariffs on imports from the euro zone — not just their announcement, you could forget our economic forecasts completely. No chance of a sustained pick-up in activity throughout the second half as we expect.”

German Of The Day: Handelskrieg

That means trade war.

Handelskrieg

A trade war between the United States and Europe is coming and the fallout could tip Germany into recession, according to analysts at German lender Commerzbank…

Official German statistics supplemented by the bank’s own research show that in 2018, the United States was the top export destination for German cars, accounting for about 12% of the total with a value of 27 billion euros of parts or finished vehicles.

The bank estimated that a Trump-ordered tariff increase of 25 percentage points on EU auto imports would slash that figure for Germany down to around 14 billion euros per annum.

When factoring in how much of that export figure is actual German “added value,” the bank estimated that total economic output for the country could fall by around 0.25 percentage points.

“All the more dangerous in a situation where the German economy is only just managing to avoid a recession,” it read.

German Of The Day: Mangelhaft

That means deficient. As in the deficient quality of the oil being imported to Europe via a Russian pipeline – this import having now been suspended by Poland?

Oil

That means Germany can’t get the oil, either. It’s not like Germany’s dependency on Russian gas and oil is deficient, however. That’s as high a quality dependency as you can get.

Germany and Poland have suspended imports of Russian oil amid contamination concerns, prompting a rare crisis over supply from the world’s second-largest exporter.

The sudden suspension of imports from the Soviet-built Druzhba pipeline, which runs from Russia via Belarus to central Europe, risks starving major European refineries of their major source of crude.

Händler großer Ölkonzerne, die Raffinerien in Deutschland betreiben, bestätigten dies: Die Versorgung über die noch von der Sowjetunion gebauten “Druschba”, auf Deutsch “Freundschaft”, sei gestoppt.

Are You Feeling The Security Risk Yet?

European automobile tariff regulators?

Import

The U.S. Commerce Department is set to meet a Sunday deadline to deliver its recommendations to President Donald Trump on whether imported vehicles and parts pose a national security risk, and to outline options on how to address the issue, officials said on Thursday.

Trump would then have 90 days after Commerce’s recommendation to decide whether to impose tariffs…

Trump has urged the EU to drop its 10 percent tariff on imported vehicles. The U.S. passenger car tariff is 2.5 percent, while it imposes 25 percent tariffs on pickup trucks.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, whose members include General Motors, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corp, has warned tariffs would boost imported car prices nearly $6,000 on average.

Deutsche Autobauer verstehen die Welt nicht mehr.

War Is Over! (f You Want It)

What? That was it? No more trade war hysteria? Just when it was starting to get interesting? What Luschen (duds).

EU

The Wall Street Journal reported that Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, has been in talks recently with the chief executives of German car makers BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler, where they pitched the idea of ending car tariffs between the U.S. and the EU.

During these talks, the executives said they would be in favor of scrapping these levies as part of a broader deal encompassing industrial goods, the Journal said.

“Germany has the right approach to resolving this trade disagreement among friends.”