Well, Then He Shouldn’t Announce Tariffs, Right?

German auto sector could drop as much as 12% if Trump announces tariffs, analyst says.

Tariffs

Gee, I wonder if there is anything the Germans/Europeans could do to prevent that from happening? I dunno. How about like maybe lowering their tariffs? Just thinking out loud here, people.

Germany’s automotive sector could fall as much as 12% over “three bad trading days,” if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European car manufacturers, one analyst told CNBC.

Trump has until Friday midnight (Washington time) to decide whether to impose duties on car imports. This would likely hurt Germany, the EU’s traditional growth engine, given that it is one of the largest direct car exporters to the U.S.

“If indeed we get U.S. car tariffs on imports from the euro zone — not just their announcement, you could forget our economic forecasts completely. No chance of a sustained pick-up in activity throughout the second half as we expect.”

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German Of The Day: Handelskrieg

That means trade war.

Handelskrieg

A trade war between the United States and Europe is coming and the fallout could tip Germany into recession, according to analysts at German lender Commerzbank…

Official German statistics supplemented by the bank’s own research show that in 2018, the United States was the top export destination for German cars, accounting for about 12% of the total with a value of 27 billion euros of parts or finished vehicles.

The bank estimated that a Trump-ordered tariff increase of 25 percentage points on EU auto imports would slash that figure for Germany down to around 14 billion euros per annum.

When factoring in how much of that export figure is actual German “added value,” the bank estimated that total economic output for the country could fall by around 0.25 percentage points.

“All the more dangerous in a situation where the German economy is only just managing to avoid a recession,” it read.

German Of The Day: Unsicherheit

That means uncertainty. You know, like economic uncertainty?

Export

German exports fell by 1.3% in February compared with the month before, the Federal Statistics Office said on Monday. The figure represents the biggest drop in export revenue for a year…

Economists say that uncertainties surrounding Britain’s exit from the EU, the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China as well as weakening demand for industrial products are weighing on economies across the world.

“Die Ungewissheit aufgrund der vielen ungelösten Konflikte schlägt sich in den Auftragsbüchern nieder.”

Political Paralysis?

That’s my thing now. That’s what I do.

Merkel

On the one hand, I could screw it up with this side. On the other hand, I could screw this up over here first. Decisions, decisions…

The global order that underpins German prosperity is unraveling, and Angela Merkel doesn’t know what to do. President Donald Trump’s America First policy is forcing Germany to make an impossible choice between the U.S. and China — pitting the force behind the country’s modern economic success against the key to its future growth…

For decades, the country profited from an international trading system run by the West and backed up by the military might of the U.S. The government just got out of the way and watched exports roll. Those days are over…

“Germany is caught up in a dilemma of changing trade patterns and doesn’t know how to react.”

Trump hin oder her – die USA bleiben Deutschlands wichtigster Absatzmarkt.

Number Four Has Issues

But it doesn’t really make much sense, does it?

Four

How can the world’s fourth largest exporter of arms (don’t worry, they’ll be back up at third place again in no time) have “issues with readiness of submarines, aircraft” for its own army? Year in and year out, I mean. One could almost think it’s intentional.

The readiness of Germany’s weapons systems stood at about 70 percent in 2018 overall, but its submarines, heavy-lift helicopters and Tornado fighter jets faced continued challenges, the German Defence Ministry told lawmakers on Monday.

Germany is the fourth largest arms exporter in the world, according to a report released by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute on Monday.

Colombia

Beautiful German weapons sale of the week.

Guns

OK, in this case beautiful German judicial deal of the week.

Because somebody has to admire them.

Three former executives at German gun-maker Sig Sauer, including one who became CEO of a sister company in the United States, reached a deal with prosecutors over allegations they illegally exported arms to Colombia and likely won’t go to prison, a court official in Germany said Wednesday.

Mexico

Beautiful German weapon sale of the week – this time with extra added suspended jail terms!

Mexico

Because somebody has to admire them.

A German court has handed suspended jail terms to two ex-employees of gun maker Heckler & Koch and fined the firm €3.7m (£3.2m) for illegal arms deliveries to Mexico.

The Stuttgart court acquitted three other H&K ex-employees.

H&K was found to have breached German arms export rules by shipping nearly 5,000 G36 assault rifles and smaller firearms to strife-torn regions.

Mexico is plagued by warfare involving drug gangs and paramilitaries.

Heckler & Koch muss wegen Ausfuhren von Gewehren nach Mexiko mehrere Millionen Euro Strafe bezahlen. Zudem wurden zwei Ex-Angestellte zu Bewährungsstrafen verurteilt.

Are You Feeling The Security Risk Yet?

European automobile tariff regulators?

Import

The U.S. Commerce Department is set to meet a Sunday deadline to deliver its recommendations to President Donald Trump on whether imported vehicles and parts pose a national security risk, and to outline options on how to address the issue, officials said on Thursday.

Trump would then have 90 days after Commerce’s recommendation to decide whether to impose tariffs…

Trump has urged the EU to drop its 10 percent tariff on imported vehicles. The U.S. passenger car tariff is 2.5 percent, while it imposes 25 percent tariffs on pickup trucks.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, whose members include General Motors, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corp, has warned tariffs would boost imported car prices nearly $6,000 on average.

Deutsche Autobauer verstehen die Welt nicht mehr.

United Kingdom

Beautiful German weapon sale of the week – only it’s actually more like a purchase this time.

BAE

Because somebody has to admire them.

Wait a minute. Aren’t these the same Germans who tell us that Brexit is going to be the end of the world as we know it?

Brexit boost as Germans invest £30million in UK tank maker – A GERMAN defence giant yesterday defied Brexit doomsayers by pumping £30million into a British armoured vehicle business.

Egypt

Beautiful German weapon sale of the week.

Egypt

Because somebody has to admire them.

With the export (of a frigate) to Egypt, the Federal government maintains its controversial practice of supplying weapons to authoritarian regimes if these are considered to be regional partners of the Federal government. In addition, they will again break the promise not to deliver any more weapons to countries that are directly involved in the Yemen war (Saudi Arabia supports Egypt financially and makes this purchase possible and Egypt has participated in the Yemen conflict as a coalition partner with fighter jets).

Ägypten gehört ganz offiziell zu dieser von Saudi-Arabien geführten Koalition und hat auch mit Kampfjets an Missionen über dem Jemen teilgenommen. Indirekt dürften die Millionen für die deutschen Fregatten ohnehin aus Riad kommen. Seit Jahren hängt Ägypten finanziell am Tropf des Königsreichs. Ohne die massiven Zahlungen wären die ägyptischen Institutionen längst zusammengebrochen.