Germany and China vs. the USA

Guess who wins (these days, I mean)? Duh. But it’s only a paritial victory, as Germany tries to spin it (they don’t want to gloat all too much publically).

After China and Germany teamed up and publicly slammed the Federal Reserve’s decision to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds last week, now they’re shoulder to shoulder at the G20 successfully resisting this EVIL infusion of cash (= dollar devaluation) together too. They are doing this because, well, only China is allowed to devaluate its currency, I guess. And a weak dollar also means a strong euro which would hurt German exports and, well, this isn’t allowed to happen either.

Strange bedfellows aren’t they? Sure. What can/will President Obama do about it? Not much, it seems. But at least everybody over there still really, really likes him. And that’s the main thing.

It’s a mystery, isn’t it? How we got here, I mean? Well, no. I guess it isn’t. But why this happened as it did is all too, uh, deep for me. It’s kind of like this current German hole within a hole conundrum going on.

I mean, don’t like two holes make a non-hole?

“Obama muss klein beigeben”

Germany home alone again

Although the Germans may not have noticed it yet.

Talk about a fistful of dollars. Underscoring the mounting friction between Germany and its G-20 partners concerning the question of finanical policy, Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the US plan to pump $600bn into the US economy was “clueless” and would create “extra problems for the world”.

So, like where’s the problem?

Of course the German coalition government needs to talk tough like this because it has to convince everyone here how austere it really is–it trails the opposition in opinion polls before six state elections next year and needs a success “after alienating German voters by supporting the bailout for Greece in May.” Calling US policy makers clueless is just the icing on the cake.

Can’t wait for the G-20 meeting in Seoul next week. To take a look at “united Europe’s” stand on the matter, I mean. Although if you’d ask President Obama, he’d probably tell you that Europe just doesn’t matter.

“Eine ganze Reihe von Amerikanern betrachte Europa zwar nicht als Problem, allerdings längst auch nicht mehr als Teil der Lösung. Obama scheint dazu zu gehören.”

And thanks a million for this one, Joe:

“You won’t find a lot of Keynesians here,” explained one German economic policymaker in Berlin in September. That will not be news to anyone who has spoken to his counterparts in Washington. In their view, Germany is a skulker, a rotten citizen of the global economy, the macroeconomic equivalent of a juvenile delinquent, or worse. It is a smart aleck in the emergency ward that is the global economy. It is a flouter of the prescriptions of the new Doctor New Deal who sits in the White House. 
 
 
 
 http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/germany-said-no_513319.html
 
So when Obama administration officials urge Germans to stimulate, they are wrong, but not for the obvious reasons. It is not that they want to impose socialist programs on a capitalist system that is doing well without them. It is that they want to impose demand-stimulating programs on a system that is already absolutely glutted with them. It is as if the administration’s approach were to take as a baseline whatever any given government happens to be spending, and then to insist that the figure should be, say, 10 percent of GDP higher. This is about as reasonable as assuming your child will be half as likely to get pneumonia if you send him off to school wearing two down parkas.

 

The crisis is over, let’s save even more!

In case you hadn’t noticed, German psychology is different than other kinds of folks’ psychology (volks-psychology?). At least when it comes to saving money it is.

Whereas Americans, let’s say, save the little that they can when times are hard and then toss it out with both fists like crazy people the first chance they get, Germans save when the times are hard and then save even more when the times are good again. The spending part gets removed from the calculation here entirely.

And that’s what’s happening now, again. Now that the financial crisis is ancient history and everything is booming here again and unemployment is supposedly under three million and milk and honey are flowing down the streets and into the gutter and all that, private Germans are saving more privately than ever–an average of about 11.5 percent of what they’ve earned this past six months.

And no, they don’t maybe know something that the rest of us don’t know. They’re just hamsters. It’s in their jeans. I mean genes.

“Für die privaten Haushalte zusammen ergibt sich ein Sparvolumen von rund 93 Milliarden Euro.”

PS: I’m thinking now it’s maybe just a big game or something that only the initiated (the Germans themselves) know about. Whoever has saved the most money by the time he or she dies, wins.

Saving ain’t what it used to be

In Germany, I mean. About 16 percent of the German population doesn’t have anything left over to save anymore.

But the rest who do are still pretty good at it–and they are just as conservative about their saving strategies as they have ever been. Some 49 percent of savers save using the good old-fashioned savings account, 35 percent still like the old Bausparvertrag technique (a savings contract with a home building society), 31 percent save using insurance policies and only about 22 percent go for stocks and bonds.

And that all of these numbers added up together give you a number like way higher than 100 percent only goes to show you just how good at saving these Germans really are. Damn. I wish we could do that.

“Lediglich fünf Prozent aller Sparer legen besonderen Wert darauf, dass sie die Finanzprodukte, in die sie investieren, auch vollständig verstehen.”

Export this

Tim Geitner surely meant well when he suggested that certain powerful G-20 export nations like Germany might maybe ought to want to cap their trade surpluses and deficits at 4% of GDP.  But well just isn’t good enough when dealing with the Germans (and their money).

German Economy Minister Rainer Brüderle quickly retorted however, warning against “planned economy thinking” and “macro-economic fine-tuning and quantitative target-setting,” whatever that means. “Eat me completely,” in other words.

Die Vereinigten Staaten kritisieren immer wieder den hohen Exportüberschuss von Deutschland und China.

German trade with Iran still wunderbar

“Reports indicate Germany’s exports to Iran have reached near the two-billion Euros mark in the first half of 2010.”

“The figure represents a 14 percent rise in Iranian imports from Europe’s largest economy, compared to the same period last year.”

Bei deutschen Behörden und der Industrie stoßen die Pläne der EU-Kommission auf Empörung. Dort werden die Sanktionen gegen Iran als zu massiv und unprofessionell gewertet.

Get your latest angst here!

Oh boy, another German angst study just came out. But nobody is brave enough to read it yet so I’ll have to give you a quick summary instead.

There is a certain logic to these studies, by the way. There always is, although it may not seem all that logical to you or to me.

For instance, after having patted themselves on the back over the past few weeks about how great the German economy is doing, it only stands to reason (here) that the latest number one German angst has to do with just that; the economy. Some 67 percent of Germans asked are shaking in their boots about it – and worry about the climbing cost of living at the same time. A mere 61 percent of those asked worry about becoming unemployed.

But it’s only going to get more frightening, folks. A group of economic experts has just revised their growth prediction for the Germany economy this year upwards fron 2.1 to 3.4 percent. Boo!

Wie andere Experten haben die Kieler ihre Schätzung für 2010 deutlich erhöht. Bisher hatten sie für 2010 nur 2,1 Prozent Wachstum veranschlagt, nun erwarten sie ein Plus von 3,4 Prozent.

Vacation Nation

At least they waited until the vacation season was over. In what can only be seen as an attempt to stage a hilarous end of summer practical joke, the spokeswoman for a small business entrepreneur association has actually suggested that Germans go on vacation too much and that they should cut their annual leave time down from six weeks to four.

Cutting vacation time in Germany? Hardy, har, har. That’s a good one.

Es gibt Themen, bei denen verstehen die Deutschen keinen Spaß.

Do not pass go, do not collect $200

The next euro whammy? Now it’s time to assist Portugal. Bring out your Microcurrency, Germany. But don’t spend it all at one place.


“The alternative currency is not some gimmicky fundraiser. It may look a little like Monopoly money, but the chiemgauer is real. One chiemgauer equals one euro. It’s been around for eight years, almost as long as the euro, the common currency now used by 16 of the 27 EU members.”