Debt Expert Deutschland

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Ritschl, Germany is coming across like a know-it-all in the debate over aid for Greece. Berlin is intransigent and is demanding obedience from Athens. Is this attitude justified?

Ritschl: No, there is no basis for it.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Most Germans would likely disagree.

Ritschl: That may be, but during the 20th century, Germany was responsible for what were the biggest national bankruptcies in recent history. It is only thanks to the United States, which sacrificed vast amounts of money after both World War I and World War II, that Germany is financially stable today and holds the status of Europe’s headmaster. That fact, unfortunately, often seems to be forgotten.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What happened back then exactly?

Ritschl: From 1924 to 1929, the Weimar Republic lived on credit and even borrowed the money it needed for its World War I reparations payments from America. This credit pyramid collapsed during the economic crisis of 1931. The money was gone, the damage to the United States enormous, the effect on the global economy devastating.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The situation after World War II was similar.

Ritschl: But right afterwards, America immediately took steps to ensure there wouldn’t be a repeat of high reparations demands made on Germany. With only a few exceptions, all such demands were put on the backburner until Germany’s future reunification. For Germany, that was a life-saving gesture, and it was the actual financial basis of the Wirtschaftswunder, or economic miracle (that began in the 1950s). But it also meant that the victims of the German occupation in Europe also had to forgo reparations, including the Greeks.

“He warns the country should take a more chaste approach in the euro crisis or it could face renewed demands for World War II reparations.”

Über Euro Über Alles?

Time for a new European currency yet?

“The real threat to the euro isn’t that a weak peripheral country like Greece might withdraw in an effort to devalue its way to competitiveness, but rather that Germany might want to pull out.”

This guy makes a very interesting point. He goes into what he defines as the three main problems that have led Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain (not yet, but soon) to the dismal position they are now in and suggests that because of the coming bailout fatique, the only way to save the union is, well, to divide it. This could best be done by introducing an Über Euro in the non-bailout nations.

“Germany’s incentive to leave grows with each bailout, and Berlin could ultimately make a simple calculation that extrication will be less costly than continuing the sacrifice needed to keep the euro.”

To avoid this, one could strike a grand bargain by creating this new currency. “These nations then announce that all obligations between their citizens will henceforth be denominated in the new currency, the Über Euro, which would eventually be managed by the Bundesbank. The Über Euro would initially be set at a value of perhaps 1.3 euros, setting the stage for an export boom for countries that continue to use the euro. This would allow the remaining eurozone members to restore their competitiveness without having their financial systems go bankrupt; it also would allow Germany to sell the plan as saving Europe without breaking up the EU.”

“Should the remaining euro countries continue irresponsible fiscal policies, the European Central Bank (which would continue to be their central bank), would slowly monetize their debt. The euro would continue to depreciate against the Über Euro and perhaps end up as junk currency. …The ECB’s stature would be diminished and its balance sheet probably trashed.”

Sounds like a good plan to me (for world domination?). But I’m not very good with money, either.

There is no inherent reason the European project cannot proceed with two currencies and the citizenry may force this outcome.

PS: Beware, Greece. As the Wall Street Journal puts it, there’s a Wolfgang at your door.

“Die Noch-Supermacht”

Like S&P, Germany ITSELF believes that it’s time for “the yet superpower” to start saving big time and pronto. And I for one would listen (you know, like listening to E. F. Hutton when they used to talk?) because the Germans have had a whole lot of experience in giving good advice like this as of late. Just look at how their recommendations have helped Greece, for instance.

“The danger is that the Americans are still lulled into a false sense of security.”

“Möglich, dass Obama dann (nach der Wiederwahl) wirklich anfängt zu sparen.”

Humanitarian effort here? Nein Danke!

In Libya, maybe. But only if you ask nicely.

Uh oh. Germany is lecturing about responsibility again (immigrants from North Africa are trying to make their way to Europe for some strange reason these days and the EU is showing EU solidarity again).

Germany criticized Italian officials for undermining the Schengen Agreement, which established passport-free zones, and said Italy should handle the immigrants on its own.

“Within this European solidarity, it is necessary for each individual country to first face its responsibility,” Germany’s interior minister, Hans-Peter Friedrich, said in a television interview.

Libya: Frankreich reagierte mit Spott auf Deutschlands Pläne: Die Bereitschaft Berlins zu einem humanitären Hilfseinsatz in Libyen sei wie eine “mündliche Nachprüfung”, sagte Verteidigungsminister Gérard Longuet am Dienstag vor der französischen Nationalversammlung.

Our D-I-V-O-R-C-E

Becomes final today. Me and little Sar-ko-sy will be goin’ away…

So much for France and Germany as the inseparable couple at the heart of Europe.

The issue here is not direct German military participation. Everyone would have understood if that was not possible. But how could Germany not support a UN resolution backed by its principal European partners, the United States and the Arab League?

Like so many contemporary European politicians, they (in the German government) follow rather than lead public opinion.

“We calculated the risk. If we see that three days after this intervention began, the Arab League already criticises [it], I think we had good reasons.” While French and British pilots risk their lives in action, the German foreign minister is virtually encouraging the Arab League to make further criticism.

Latest Angst Update:
++ Ticker Ticker++Several German container shipping companies have stopped going to eastern Japanese ports including Tokyo for the time being amid fears of radiation++ Ticker Ticker ++Fukushima radiation detected in Germany!!!

And thanks for this cool Angst Republic link, A.K.

Remember when it was European Germany?

Now it’s German Europe.

Huh? Where did this come from all of a sudden? Out of the blue like that?*

It was another “good day for Europe” when, as usual, nothing was actually resolved during the latest EU summit the other day, other than the fact that that nothing had a big Made in Germany stamp on it. The times they are a changed. The country that used to moan about being the paymaster for so long (and still does, of course, don’t get me wrong)  is now “the taskmaster of the entire community” and doesn’t even have the decency to make a secret about it anymore.

But don’t complain about it, my (as in Germany’s) fellow Europeans. This is only what the “fathers of Europe” had envisioned right from the start. Think of  what Jean Monnet had to say about the plan, for instance:

He wanted to guide European countries into a super-state “without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose.”

I admit that this wasn’t quite the purpose he had envisioned but, well, now you “have the salad,” as the Germans like to say (the fat is in the fire). It doesn’t really matter that Berlin has a lack of vision when it comes to dealing with the current euro crisis, Germany calls the shots now and doesn’t need a vision if it doesn’t want one. So get used to it already.

“This is all about Germany, and it’s all about the end of the German appetite for writing checks to the periphery of Europe.”

*Have any of you ever read Philip K. Dick’s The Man in the High Castle? Germany and Japan win World War II. This is kind of like that.

You’ll do it my way

Or it’s the highway. Does that summit up enough for you, Freunde?

Let us sing.

And now, the end is here
And so I face the final curtain

No, wait. This verse is better.

Regrets, I’ve had a few
But then again, too few to mention

No, maybe this one instead.

Yes, there were times, I’m sure you know
When I bit off more than I could chew
But through it all, when there was doubt
I ate it up and spit it out
I faced it all and I stood tall and did it my way

“The defiant stand came as Moody’s issued a downgrade warning on Spain owing to “high refinancing needs in 2011″ and the risk of further bank bail-outs.”

Talk to the hand

“They are rejecting an idea before studying it.” What else is new, Jean-Claude? Remember Iraq? The Germans said no to that before even being asked.

Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker “launched a blistering attack” on Germany for its flat refusal to even consider his proposal to create eurozone bonds (“E-Bonds” would help weaker eurozone members raise money). He called the Germans “un-European.” Ouch. It doesn’t get much lower than that, people. Unless it’s “un-Southern European” maybe. Lower, get it?

Too bad he mixed up Merkel & Co. with somebody who gives a Scheiße. Just get used to it, Jean-Claude. And you just keep raising your hand as often as you like.

“This is very strange. This way of creating taboo areas in Europe and not dealing with others’ ideas is a very un-European way of dealing with European matters.”

“Deutschland macht dabei auch ein gutes Geschäft”

Germany is also getting a good bargain in the deal.

What deal you ask? You know, the one the Germans love moaning about so much at the Stammtisch (regulars’ table) these days: How poor Germany has to bail everbody out in Europe (Greece, Ireland, who’s next?) and how said poor Germans are poor victims yet again and blah, blah, tra, la, boo, hoo, hoo.

But there’s always a rest of the story.

Sure, the Germans have to “contribute” the most to this way cool European rescue parachute that keeps getting pulled these days, but they also have the most to gain if everything goes right.

How so? Some call it, I don’t know, refinancing. They borrow the money on the bond market for 3 percent and then loan it to the Greeks and the Irish (and the next folks to come along) for 5.8 percent. If these countries die Kurve kriegen (turn the corner), then the money comes rolling back in–and a big sweet profit to boot.

So dry your eyes over there at the Stammtisch already and take a deep breath after you order your next beer. Es wird alles gut. Everything will turn out good in the end. Maybe even real good.

“Wer sich selbst am Anleihemarkt für knapp drei Prozent refinanziere und an Krisenländer wie Griechenland und Irland Kredite zu einem Zinssatz von 5,8 Prozent ausreiche, könne selbst ordentliche Gewinne einstreichen.”