Seven Years Of Famine Or Something

No short-term pain, no long-term gain.

“There might well be seven lean years ahead for the world economy,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a speech at a meeting of Nobel laureates at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.

What he really meant was seven years of fiscal consolidation (austerity measures) in Europe (and elsewhere?). This is the key to long-term growth, he says. My, how, uh, German or something.

Jiminy Crickets. As if the ten plagues of late hadn’t been bad enough already, now the Germans themselves (they own Europe, you see, and are recreating it in their own image) are going to inflict the Pharaohs of the EU with seven years of boils, hail, locusts and darkness. In the form of austerity measures, I mean. Or maybe they won’t. Hard to say for sure. Could be that monkeys will fly out of their butts instead.

Muddy Waters knew the deal:

On the seventh hour, of the seventh day,
on the seventh month, the seventh economic witch doctor say:
“He’s born for good luck, and I know you see;
Got seven hundred euros, and don’t you mess with me.

How Miraculous

Hidden behind the so-called German economic miracle is an underclass of low-paid employees whose incomes have benefited little from the country’s stability and in fact have shrunk in real terms over the last decade.

Despite Germany’s renowned inflation-fighting efforts, which kept consumer price increases at an average of 1.7 percent a year from 2000 to 2010, more and more low-income Germans report that they cannot make ends meet despite having a job and that they must rely upon state aid to supplement their income.

Nowhere is this deepening chasm more visible than in Berlin-Mitte, the prosperous center of the capital, full of handsome government buildings and fine restaurants that cater to officials and lobbyists.

On a rainy summer morning here, only a 10-minute walk from the glamorous Unter Den Linden boulevard, hundreds of poorly dressed men and women lined up inside the district employment office. Some of them had come to look for work, some were applying for state help and some just wanted to accompany a friend.

“They cannot live off their income. Their wages are just too low. They have no choice but to receive help from the state.”

Ain’t no “might” about it, Fareed

If push comes to shove over here, I mean.

Why Germany might let Europe fall

The old structure of Europe rested on an extraordinary degree of German abnegation of its own interests.  The Germans believed their national interest lay in subordinating itself in every way to Europe’s broader interest.  That was what Europe was built on.

Today what people are basically asking is: “Is Europe’s debt going to be centralized or not?” In other words, is Europe going to be willing to say, “All our debt is pooled together and theoretically, as a single entity, we’ll pay it back.”

The key to this commitment is Germany. Germany is the only country that can pay.

The key to Europe’s future is how Germany conceives of its interests.

So once it gets real ugly, and it’s going to get a whole lot uglier yet, the last guy out please remember to turn off the lights.

PS: This gives “Old Europe” and “New Europe” a whole new meaning, don’t it?

Oh My God We’re All Gonna Die Yet Again Once More Again This Time For Real Already

Historic? Damned right it’s historic (the debt deal – if it actually passes).

“In the first stage, it includes $917 billion in spending cuts and other deficit reduction now, as well as a $900 billion increase in the debt ceiling.

In the second stage, a special joint committee of Congress will recommend further deficit reduction steps totaling $1.5 trillion or more by the end of November, with Congress obligated to vote on the panel’s proposals by the end of the year.

In addition, across-the-board cuts are automatically enacted if Congress fails to pass the special committee’s recommendations.”

I can only hope that what seems to be one of the Spiegel‘s worst fears will actually come true and the US government has now begun a process that will “shrink itself to a skeletal state.” That just sounds too good to be true, though.

“Es gibt kein Licht am Ende des Tunnels.”

Oh My God We’re All Gonna Die Again Already

Well there we have it. Der Spiegel itself makes it official and that picture down there proves it or something.

The American economy is caving in. We’re tanking. We’re toast. It’s all over but the crying. All bets are off. We’re on the river of no return. We’re dead meat. Buddy, have you got a dime? How about any of you other guys out there other than Buddy? Down and out in [place any American city name you want here]. Yes, we can. I mean no, we can’t.

Thanks, Spiegel. How refreshing (not). But how so very predictable. And consistent.

Es ist ein grässlicher Tag für die USA: Die Supermacht steht vor der Staatspleite, jetzt bricht auch noch das Wirtschaftswachstum ein.

But We Mentioned Human Rights

You got your values, then you got your interests. Then you have the value of your interests. Then you have the interest you get on the value of those interests.

So, in other words, always look after your own interests if you want good value.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also targeted an increase of bilateral trade to 200bn euros ($284bn; £178bn) over the next five years.

Germany is by far China’s biggest trading partner in the European Union.

China and Germany are the two biggest exporters in the world. 

Everything Is So Wonderfulawful Here

Things have never been better here in Germany, we are told. And yet the German nation still can’t seem to get up off the collective couch (the psychiatrist’s kind).

This guy has an interesting take on Germany’s latest “season of angst” or why a prosperous nation has this obsessive need to turn on itself (and those around it).

His bewilderment is uncalled for however, I find. I can only wonder why he wonders. The Germans were, are and always will be collectively schizophrenic, in their own peculiar (cute?) little way. They are permanently krankgeschrieben (off sick) and that couch is, well, where they live.

Yet it is very hard to find anyone here who is happy about this state of affairs. Unlike the great Rhineland industrial booms of the 1950s and 1970s, this one is provoking Germans to turn against their government, against Europe, against technology and growth, against outsiders. It is an inward-looking, self-questioning moment in a country that the rest of Europe very badly needs to be involved in affairs outside its borders.

Debt Expert Deutschland

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Ritschl, Germany is coming across like a know-it-all in the debate over aid for Greece. Berlin is intransigent and is demanding obedience from Athens. Is this attitude justified?

Ritschl: No, there is no basis for it.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Most Germans would likely disagree.

Ritschl: That may be, but during the 20th century, Germany was responsible for what were the biggest national bankruptcies in recent history. It is only thanks to the United States, which sacrificed vast amounts of money after both World War I and World War II, that Germany is financially stable today and holds the status of Europe’s headmaster. That fact, unfortunately, often seems to be forgotten.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What happened back then exactly?

Ritschl: From 1924 to 1929, the Weimar Republic lived on credit and even borrowed the money it needed for its World War I reparations payments from America. This credit pyramid collapsed during the economic crisis of 1931. The money was gone, the damage to the United States enormous, the effect on the global economy devastating.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The situation after World War II was similar.

Ritschl: But right afterwards, America immediately took steps to ensure there wouldn’t be a repeat of high reparations demands made on Germany. With only a few exceptions, all such demands were put on the backburner until Germany’s future reunification. For Germany, that was a life-saving gesture, and it was the actual financial basis of the Wirtschaftswunder, or economic miracle (that began in the 1950s). But it also meant that the victims of the German occupation in Europe also had to forgo reparations, including the Greeks.

“He warns the country should take a more chaste approach in the euro crisis or it could face renewed demands for World War II reparations.”

More Miserable Management

In Germany, I mean.

I just wanted to share these highly German on-the-job motivational sayings with you, for no particular reason.

“Bread molds. Shit stinks. What can you do?”

“I’d like to go on vacation the way that you go to work.”

“I don’t have problems, I have employees.”

“Please shut the door. Or can’t you do that either?”

“Regular failure is also a form of reliability.”

“Ich kann Sie nur auf den Topf setzen. Drücken müssen Sie alleine.”