How Accurate Are The Polls For German Elections?

We know how accurate they can be for American elections, right? Let’s see what the results will be like after the Bavarian election today.

Bavaria

Some say if Merkel’s CSU partner party loses as bad as these polling number suggest it could be the straw that finally breaks her camel’s back. I doubt it will happen, though. As the Germans say: Totgesagte Leben Länger. This chick ain’t never going away.

Just like Oktoberfest, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative sister party is woven into the checked fabric of Bavarian culture.

The Christian Social Union (CSU) has ruled Germany’s richest state since 1957, sharing power just once in a coalition with the free-market FDP. And since then, every Bavarian prime minister has risen from its ranks.

But now, swift as a reveller draining his tankard, support has ebbed away.

The CSU is bracing itself for humiliating losses in Sunday’s Bavarian state election. The party is on course to lose the absolute majority its leaders once took for granted.

Bayern steht vor einem politischen Erdbeben.

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There’s Nowhere Else To Go

Thanks again, Angie. They couldn’t have done it without you.

Sway

Populist attitudes are on the rise in Germany, particularly from within the political center. One in three voters now sympathizes with populist policies, according to a new study by the Bertelsmann Foundation.

The latest “Populism Barometer” found that almost every third German voter sympathizes to some degree with populist anti-establishment policies, whether on the left- or right-wing of the political spectrum.

At the same time, the number of sampled voters who identify as politically centrist has decreased by four percentage points, to just 32.8 percent.

“Right-wing voters support the AfD because the party is right wing. But voters in the middle will also vote AfD because the party speaks to their populist sympathies.”

Mysterious

Puzzling. Enigmatic. Inexplicable.

AfD

The latest poll indicates that the AfD has now surpassed the SPD in popularity and is now number two among the political parties in Germany. None of the other parties will work with them, of course. Not yet, anyway. Of course, none of the other parties will ever need to work with them if they get an absolute majority of the vote in the next election.

As for the causes of this continued surge in popularity, none of the smart folks in government, academia or media can figure out why this is happening. I think it’s time to call even more experts, don’t you?

Die Polizei teilte am Samstag mit, der afghanische Asylbewerber leide nach der Einschätzung eines Gutachters an einer tiefgreifenden psychiatrischen Erkrankung.

AI Don’t Trust You

But what’s new? Germans don’t trust any new technical development that comes along. Grundsätzlich (out of principle). New is scary because it always comes from somewhere else.

AI

So here’s another piece of news that made the news even though it’s not news at all: A YouGov survey has revealed that Germans are distrustful of anything that has to do with artificial intelligence. Not only is AI new (and from somehwere else), it’s, well, artificial. It’s not natural, you know? Non-organic or something.

Die Mehrheit der Deutschen steht einer Umfrage des Instituts YouGov zufolge dem Einsatz Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) misstrauisch gegenüber. Nur rund jeder Siebte – 15 Prozent – denkt demnach, dass der Nutzen der Technologie gegenüber den Risiken überwiegt, wie die repräsentative Umfrage ergab.

German Of The Day: Allzeit-Tief

That means all-time low.

Low

The latest Emnid “Sunday trend” survey indicates that Germany’s CDU/CSU Union and SPD “grand” coalition government continues to loss favor with German voters – and is not nearly as grand as the name implies.

Like the SPD experience last week when it fell behind the AfD in similar popularity ratings, the CDU/CSU has also continued its slide and are now only at 29 percent. With the SPD’s current 17 percent rating, the grand coalition would only reach 46 percent of the vote if elections were to be held today.

Everyone is puzzled about what the reason for these low ratings could be. Not.

Die Parteien der großen Koalition verlieren bei den Wählern an Zuspruch. Von den Einbußen der Unionsparteien und der Sozialdemokraten profitiert bislang nur eine Bundestagspartei.

German Of The Day: SPD

That stands for the Sinking Party of Deutschland. Or was it for Sterbende (dying) Partei Deutschlands? One of those.

SPD

I’m talking sinking, folks. Low. How low, you ask? I’ll tell you how low. Why, a pool released today indicates that the SPD’s national popularity rating is now so low that it has dropped behind that dreadful, awful and completely unacceptable AfD party. Times change, comrades. Thanks for your help there, Angela Merkel (she’s not SPD, of course, but her wild and crazy refugee policy has made the AfD what it is today: The second largest party in the Bundesag – and they’re not done yet). The SPD help make up Germany’s current grand coalition, you know. It doesn’t look like their help will be very much help for very much longer, however.

Es ist der nächste Schock für die Sozialdemokraten: Die SPD liegt in einer bundesweiten Umfrage nur noch auf dem dritten Platz – hinter der AfD.

Another German Initiative Bites The Dust

Although they moan the loudest about it, Germans and other vocal continental moaners have finally succeeded in doing away with that awful, terrible and truly horrible daylight savings time nonsense – an idea that they introduced in the first place.

Time

The German Empire and Austria-Hungary organized the first nationwide implementation, starting on April 30, 1916. Many countries have used it at various times since then, particularly since the energy crisis of the 1970s.

A European Union online survey has concluded that a vast majority of the bloc’s citizens are against switching between summer and winter time. All signs point towards the EU now putting a stop to changing the clocks.

More than 80% of respondents to the largest online survey in EU history are in favour of abolishing changing the clocks in summer and winter, German newspaper Westfalenpost reports, citing well-informed sources in Brussels.

Es wäre sinnlos, die Bevölkerung erst zu einem Thema zu befragen, und dann, wenn es einem nicht passe, dem nicht zu folgen.

PS: Of the roughly five million Europeans who actually took part on the online survey over three million of them were German.

German Of The Day: Allzeittief

That means all-time low.

Trend

According to the “Germany trend” survey taken by the ARD, the popularity of Germany’s dominant sister party union of CDU/CSU (Angela Merkel/Horst Sehofer) has dropped to 29 percent, its all-time low. Meanwhile, the ostracized right-wing populist party AfD has climbed to 17 percent, its highest rating so far. If an election were held this Sunday, the union and the SPD (the current grand coalition government) would no longer have a majority and land at 47 percent.

Now I’m going to go way out on a limb here but I think all of this has something to do with Germany’s still unresolved migrant crisis.

Union sackt auf Allzeittief – AfD steigt auf Rekordhoch.

But That’s Only Because Two In Three Germans Don’t Have Any Friends

Survey: One in three Germans thinks sex with friends is okay.

Sex

The study was conducted ahead of the “International Day of Friendship” on July 30th, and asked 2,045 Germans their opinion about all aspects of friendship.

A full 60 percent of those surveyed said that, in a friendship between a man and woman, there stands a “risk” that one of the two will seek more than just friendship. About 20 percent of those surveyed said that a pure friendship between men and women simply is not possible.

Friends with benefits werden nun anscheinend von der breiten Bevölkerung akzeptiert.”

German Of The Day: Totgesagte Leben Länger

That means “those declared dead live longer” or there’s life in the old dog yet.

Merkel

Sure, Angela Merkel’s approval rating has long become a disapproval rating and nearly half of Germans polled would like to see her step down now but what does that have to do with anything? There is no direct balloting for the office of Chancellor or they would have voted her out of office years ago. The parliamentary majority decides. And harmless little old Angela Merkel has spent years bumping off anyone in her party who could even remotely pose a threat to her position as boss lady. Nope, things will just keep plugging along, one painful step in the wrong direction after the other. Same procedure as last year, Miss Sophie? Same procedure as every year, James.

By the way, did you know that most great catastrophes don’t just happen suddenly, out of nowhere and overnight? They usually result after a long accumulation of smaller mishaps, mistakes and poor decisions has taken place.

Berlin. Angesichts der aktuellen Regierungskrise um die Asylpolitik ist fast jeder zweite Deutsche für eine Ablösung von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel. In einer Umfrage des Meinungsforschungsinstituts YouGov sprachen sich 43 Prozent dafür aus, dass Merkel zurücktritt und ihr Amt an einen Nachfolger oder eine Nachfolgerin übergibt.