Sorry, but I think Germany has been misreading Russia for a whole lot longer than that.

How Germany misread Russia for three decades – Berlin’s 30-year rapprochement with Russia is a cautionary tale of a country that became blind to the possibility of war – and is now paying the price.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought a remarkable period in German-Russian relations to a close. Commerce, foreign investment, cultural ties and personal connections between the two countries had all grown rapidly in the three decades since the Cold War. Trade with the Russian Federation was up by 600 per cent vis-à-vis 1991, and Germany received more than half its gas imports from Russia.

As trade and cultural exchange were expanding, however, the two countries’ visions of international order remained diametrically opposed: Russia vied to have the final word in Ukraine and the South Caucasus, while Germany sought to integrate these states into the European community. This tension is at the heart of two recent books on German-Russian relations, both fiercely critical of the German government’s failure to confront Russia and the corresponding neglect of securing Europe’s Eastern borders.